At least 40% of Russia’s oil export capacity halted, Reuters calculations show
At least 40% of Russia’s oil export capacity is offline after Ukrainian drone strikes, a disputed attack on a major pipeline, and tanker seizures, according to Reuters calculations based on market data.
The disruption is the most severe in modern Russian history and has hit the world’s second largest oil exporter as prices rose above $100 a barrel during the Iran war. Oil output is a key source of budget revenue and underpins Russia’s $2.6 trillion economy.
Ukraine has stepped up drone attacks this month, hitting all three of Russia’s main western export ports, including Novorossiysk on the Black Sea and Primorsk and Ust-Luga on the Baltic.
Reuters estimates about 40% of crude export capacity, roughly 2 million barrels per day, was shut as of Wednesday after the latest strike. The outages include Primorsk, Ust-Luga, and the Druzhba pipeline through Ukraine to Hungary and Slovakia.
Kyiv has also targeted pumping stations and refineries, saying it aims to cut oil and gas revenue, which makes up about a quarter of Russia’s state budget, and weaken its military. Russia calls the strikes terrorist attacks and has tightened security across its 11 time zones.
Ukraine said part of the Druzhba pipeline was damaged by Russian strikes at the end of January, prompting Slovakia and Hungary to demand supplies resume. The Novorossiysk terminal, which can handle up to 700,000 barrels per day, has been loading below plan since heavy drone damage earlier this month.
Seizures of Russia-linked tankers in Europe have also disrupted about 300,000 barrels per day of Arctic exports from Murmansk, traders said.
With western routes under pressure, Russia is relying more on Asian markets, though capacity is limited. Pipeline flows to China continue via the Skovorodino-Mohe and Atasu-Alashankou routes, along with ESPO Blend shipments from Kozmino, together totaling about 1.9 million barrels per day. Exports from Sakhalin projects continue at around 250,000 barrels per day, and about 300,000 barrels per day is still supplied to refineries in Belarus.
