Social Security Fund Shortfall Moved Up to 2032
The U.S. Social Security trust fund used by millions of retirees is now expected to run out in late 2032, earlier than previously forecast, partly due to President Trump’s signature tax law passed last year, the government said Tuesday.
A Social Security Administration annual report said the Old-Age and Survivors Insurance trust fund, which pays retirement benefits, will be depleted in the fourth quarter of 2032 and will no longer be able to pay 100% of scheduled benefits.
The 2025 report had projected depletion in the first quarter of 2033.
At that point, the fund would cover only 78% of scheduled benefits, implying a 22% reduction in monthly retirement payments.
The Disability Insurance trust fund, which is for those receiving long-term disability payments, is still projected to remain solvent for the next 75 years, unchanged from last year’s outlook.
Combined, the two funds are expected to become insolvent in the third quarter of 2034, also unchanged from prior estimates. At that stage, the combined fund would cover about 83% of scheduled benefits, falling to 65% by 2100.
The report attributed the worsened outlook in part to Trump-era tax cuts, which reduced income tax collected on Social Security benefits and weakened key revenue streams. It also cited lower U.S. birth rates and reduced net immigration as contributing factors.
The Social Security Administration is currently led by Commissioner Frank J. Bisignano, who was confirmed by the Senate in May 2025.
